-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessEGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Sell-Off As Rate Cut Expectations Pull Back
European core FI fell sharply Thursday despite apparently softer-than-expected inflation data continuing to trickle through.
- After some richening early in the session, Bunds and Gilts resumed the theme of the week: a reversal of late 2023 bullishness. Today's negative price action brushed off in-line French and German inflation data, eyeing fairly heavy supply (Spain/France/Portugal/UK) with stronger than expected US labor market data helping extend the sell-off in the afternoon.
- There are now just 151bp in ECB cuts priced in 2024 (with March no better than a 50/50 chance of a 1st hike) vs 166bp Wednesday, with the first BoE cut seen in June and 132bp of cuts in 2024 (vs 147bp Wednesday).
- The curve sell-off was led by curve bellies (5Y Germany +12bp, 5Y UK +10bp), with German instruments slightly underperforming overall.
- Periphery spreads widened in another risk-off session, led by Greece.
- Looking ahead to Friday, US payrolls will be the highlight, but Eurozone / Italian inflation data will take focus in the morning.
- Given the data so far (which represents over 60% of the Euro area basket), headline HICP looks set to come in slightly lower than the consensus coming into the week of 3.0% Y/Y, with the core expectation of 3.4% looking roughly correct at this point.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 11.9bps at 2.533%, 5-Yr is up 12.1bps at 2.064%, 10-Yr is up 10bps at 2.124%, and 30-Yr is up 7.2bps at 2.35%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 9.3bps at 4.196%, 5-Yr is up 10.7bps at 3.687%, 10-Yr is up 8.8bps at 3.727%, and 30-Yr is up 6.8bps at 4.362%.
- Italian BTP spread up 1.3bps at 169.1bps / Greek up 5.4bps at 113.3bps
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.