MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: UK Curve Bull Steepens With Weds CPI Eyed

BONDS

The UK curve bull steepened modestly Monday as BoE hike pricing pulled back, with the belly outperforming on the German curve.

  • There was little in the way of impactful newsflow or data in the session, with Italian final inflation data in line. Overnight, soft Chinese GDP data spurred some risk-off moves, though a solid US Empire Manufacturing reading lent a slightly hawkish tone to afternoon trade.
  • A quiet session kept Wednesday's crucial UK CPI reading in focus (MNI's Gilt Week Ahead is titled "Inflation, inflation, inflation".
  • BoE terminal rate pricing reversed Friday's rise, dropping 9bp on the day, though high odds of an August 50bp hike vs 25bp raise remained steady at 75%.
  • Periphery spreads widened slightly, with Greece a modest outperformer following solid primary budget figures for H1.
  • Tuesday's docket is light, with ECB's Villeroy speaking, along with German Schatz and 2053 Gilt supply.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.1bps at 3.189%, 5-Yr is down 3.2bps at 2.579%, 10-Yr is down 3.2bps at 2.48%, and 30-Yr is down 2.7bps at 2.506%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 3.8bps at 5.168%, 5-Yr is down 3.1bps at 4.556%, 10-Yr is down 1.3bps at 4.431%, and 30-Yr is unchanged at 4.556%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 1.5bps at 167.4bps / Greek up 0.7bps at 145.9bps
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