Trial now

Corrective Cycle


Trend Signals Still Point North


BLOCK, Red Pack

EGB SUMMARY: EGBs have largely exhibited indifference to the official launching
of bilateral tariffs between the US and China. If anything, some modest risk-on
sentiment has buoyed EMU periphery debt.
- Thursday`s periphery selloff has reversed somewhat on reduced concern over the
Italian fiscal outlook, with FM Tria reportedly eyeing E33bln in spending cuts.
- BTPs have rallied vs Bunds (2Yr spreads in 9.6bps at 140.6bps and 10Yrs in
5.3bps at 237.7bps). Spanish and Portuguese 10Yr spreads are 1.5bps tighter.
- Bunds are slightly stronger after having weakened earlier on good German
industrial production data and risk-positive news that the coalition parties
have made a deal on migration. Sep8 future up 8 ticks at 162.77.
- The Euribor futures strip is completely flat on the day on thin volumes, with
only very minimal movement at the short end (Whites down half a tick).
- Main focal point this afternoon (World Cup aside) will be US Jun nonfarm
payrolls. MNI's Washington team highlights potential upside risks to the +195k
headline consensus projection, given analysts' recent misses to the downside.