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EGBS: Weak Flash PMIs Support EGB Futures

EGBS

The weaker-than-expected run of Eurozone flash PMIs supported core/semi-core EGBs, before a pullback from highs.

  • Signs of Inflation stickiness in the German PMIs may have limited the rally.
  • Bund futures +59 at 132.83. Recent gains have strengthened a bullish theme, with next resistance seen at a Fibonacci projection (133.42).
  • The German cash curve has bull steepened, taking cues from the data-driven dovish repricing in EUR STIRs.
  • ECB-dated OIS now show 45bps of cuts through year-end, vs. 42bps pre-data.
  • EGB spreads to Bunds more generally have seen limited moves.
  • The DSTA will release its quarterly outlook today, there is a risk that the issuance target for DSLs is nudged up a little to e.g. E45bln from E40bln, but we think the base case of the market is that the target remains unchanged.
  • The remainder of today’s regional calendar is light, with US flash PMIs set to garner the most interest this afternoon.
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