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EIA Revises Down Natural Gas Prices Amid Higher Inventories

NATGAS

EIA has revised down its forecast for US natural gas prices this winter, as natural gas inventories ended October higher than expected.

  • Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are expected to average at $6/MMBtu during 4Q22 and 1Q23, down by more than $1/MMBtu from October, data from the November EIA STEO report show.
  • EIA estimates U.S. natural gas inventories ended October 2022 at more than 3.5Tcf, which is 4% below the five-year average and higher than what we had been forecasting in recent months. Inventories are estimated to fall by 2.1 Tcf this winter to 1.4 Tcf by the end of March 2023.
  • EIA increased their dry gas production forecast for 2022 from 97.56bcf/d to 98.07bcf/d and expect 2023 at 99.69bcf/d.
  • They also increase their 2022 gas consumption forecast from 87.89bcf/d to 88.39bcf/d before expecting a fall to 85.08bcf/d in 2023. That compares with a record 85.29bcf/d in 2019.

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