EIA US Oil Stocks Preview: Small Crude Draw Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to show a draw of 0.70mbbl for the week ending March 22, according to a Bloomberg survey. US crude stocks drew last week driven by the ongoing recovery in US refinery utilisation rates as well as a rebound in crude exports to offset a small recovery in imports. Overall refinery utilisation is up to the highest since Jan. 12 at 87.8%. US production was unchanged on the week after declines seen earlier this month. The adjustment factor was the largest since November. Europe will import the second-highest ever volumes of US crude at 2.15mbpd in March, according to Kpler. Overall refinery utilisation is expected to increase again by 0.42% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 1.68mbbl and distillates to build by 0.23mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. US diesel cracks have drifted lower since mid March as US refining capacity is coming back online from peak maintenance in February while demand remains soft. Gasoline spreads however remain up on the month amid a seasonal increase in demand, below normal US stocks and ongoing drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries. Rising oil prices due to supply concerns are likely to push US gasoline pump prices to the highest since summer 2022 to $4/gal, according to the AAA. The current national average pump price is the highest since late October.
• Gasoline stocks last week drew in line with expectation driven by a drop in imports and lower production on the week. The four week average implied demand continued to rise faster than the seasonal trend back to near normal levels. US gasoline demand rose by 0.8% for the week ending March 24 to 8.712mbpd according to GasBuddy. Distillates stocks last week built due to an increase in production and a drop in exports while demand remained below the previous five year seasonal range. US distillate stocks were last week still 5.2% below the five year average and gasoline stocks were 2.2% below normal after a steady decline since late January.
• The API data released last night showed a crude build of 9.3mbbl and with a build of 2.4mbbl at Cushing which would be the biggest weekly gain since Jan 2023. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of 4.4mbbl while distillates stocks built by 0.5mbbl.