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Election By September At Latest After Constitutional Amendment

SLOVAKIA
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Markets NewsPolitical Market News

A snap general election will take place by September after the Slovakian constitution was amended on 25 January to allow for an early vote. The National Council will now vote to call elections. The election is intended to bring an end to the country's political paralysis, engendered by the collapse of the centre-right gov't of PM Eduard Heger in December.

  • Opinion polls point towards a major change in the political landscape, with two parties led by former prime ministers leading polls. The centre-left HLAS-SD of former PM Peter Pellegrini tops polling, while the populist left-wing Smer-SD of former PM Robert Fico sits in second place.
  • Fico's party has shifted from a broadly pro-EU social democratic outfit to one that has become more populist in rhetoric and critical of sanctions against Russia. He has also raised the possibility of working in gov't with the far-right nationalist Republika Party, currently polling just below 10%. The prospect of a gov't involving Smer-SD and Republika could see Slovakia take a turn against EU cooperation and sustained support for the Ukrainian war effort.

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average

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A snap general election will take place by September after the Slovakian constitution was amended on 25 January to allow for an early vote. The National Council will now vote to call elections. The election is intended to bring an end to the country's political paralysis, engendered by the collapse of the centre-right gov't of PM Eduard Heger in December.

  • Opinion polls point towards a major change in the political landscape, with two parties led by former prime ministers leading polls. The centre-left HLAS-SD of former PM Peter Pellegrini tops polling, while the populist left-wing Smer-SD of former PM Robert Fico sits in second place.
  • Fico's party has shifted from a broadly pro-EU social democratic outfit to one that has become more populist in rhetoric and critical of sanctions against Russia. He has also raised the possibility of working in gov't with the far-right nationalist Republika Party, currently polling just below 10%. The prospect of a gov't involving Smer-SD and Republika could see Slovakia take a turn against EU cooperation and sustained support for the Ukrainian war effort.

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less