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Election Campaigns End Wednesday Ahead of June 02 Vote

MEXICO
  • Official campaigning for the June 02 election will end tomorrow. Candidate Sheinbaum continues to lead the polls by around 20 percentage points on average as we approach the vote. JPMorgan believe the market has gotten comfortable with the idea of continuity (i.e. Morena winning and reaching simple majority in Congress), but they see chances for the outcome to be marginally more balanced versus what polls suggest, thus potentially facing a stronger system of checks and balances.
  • BBVA have separately noted that with the elections fast approaching, uncertainty may weigh on Mexican assets. BBVA believe there is a tail risk that there is a supermajority elected in congress that could open up the risk of constitutional reform.
  • On Friday, finance minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O said that there is no imminent debt plan for Pemex and that the government will wait to plan any moves for the company until after the presidential election in coordination with the incoming administration’s team. He also said that it is by no means granted that the next team would resolve this in the first or second half of this year, as the matter will take time.
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