Election Speculation Mounts w/Chancellor To Deliver Major Policy Speech

Chancellor Karl Nehammer is set to deliver a major policy speech at 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT) amid speculation that the gov't could call an election to take place on 9 June, which would coincide with Austria's elections for the European Parliament taking place on that day.

• While the speech could be seen as effectively the launch of an election manifesto for Nehammer's centre-right People's Party (ÖVP) , many of the policies have already been reported in the Austrian press. The measures supposedly include a reduction in the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 15%, a tax bonus of EUR1,000 for those working full time, and the elimination of capital gains tax on savings of up to EUR100k by 2030.
• The election is not due until the autumn at the latest, and holding an early vote would be a risk for the ÖVP. Opinion polling shows the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ) leading nationwide and on course to emerge as the largest party at the next election averaging 29.0% support in Dec '23-Jan '24. The centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ) are in second averaging 23.8% and the ÖVP in third averaging 20.9% support in the same period.
• While the FPÖ have sat in gov't previously as a junior partner, it remains to be seen whether the ÖVP would be willing to form a coaliton with the right-wingers holding the chancellor's office.

Source: INSA, Unique Research, Market-Lazarsfeld, Peter Hajek, MNI