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MNI BRIEF: BCB Focus Survey Keeps Selic Forecast Unchanged

(MNI) BRASILIA

The median forecast in the Central Bank of Brazil's Focus survey remains for a Selic rate at 9.00% for the end of this year.

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The median forecasts in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus Market Survey for the Selic rate at the end of this year and for 2025 have remained unchanged at 9.00% and 8.50% respectively, even after a hawkish shift in the BCB’s forward guidance last week.

After cutting the Selic rate by 50bp to 10.75% last week, the monetary policy committee (Copom) said it expects an additional cut of the same size at the "next meeting," after having earlier anticipated half-point moves at the "next meetings." Market participants interpreted the change as a signal of a possible slower cutting pace or a higher terminal rate than previously expected. (See MNI INTERVIEW: New Brazil Guidance Doesn't Mean Slower Easing)


Analysts reduced their forecasts for 2024 inflation to 3.75%, from 3.79% last week and to 3.51% for 2025, from 3.52%.

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The median forecasts in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus Market Survey for the Selic rate at the end of this year and for 2025 have remained unchanged at 9.00% and 8.50% respectively, even after a hawkish shift in the BCB’s forward guidance last week.

After cutting the Selic rate by 50bp to 10.75% last week, the monetary policy committee (Copom) said it expects an additional cut of the same size at the "next meeting," after having earlier anticipated half-point moves at the "next meetings." Market participants interpreted the change as a signal of a possible slower cutting pace or a higher terminal rate than previously expected. (See MNI INTERVIEW: New Brazil Guidance Doesn't Mean Slower Easing)


Analysts reduced their forecasts for 2024 inflation to 3.75%, from 3.79% last week and to 3.51% for 2025, from 3.52%.