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Employment Report Ahead, 0830ET

CANADA
  • Hitting at the same time as US CPI, the Canadian employment report for May is expected to show a continuation of the moderation in jobs growth, with consensus of 27.5k close to the 2017-19 average. It slowed to 15k in April after a strong Q1 (av 70k) on a drag from full-time roles which is expected to partially reverse this month.
  • With the participation rate expected to be unchanged at 65.3% (-0.3pps below Feb’20), that should see the u/e rate unchanged at 5.2% and the lowest since at least 1976.
  • 3 of the 14 analysts in the Bloomberg survey see the u/e rate dipping to 5.1% whilst 6 see it rising a tenth to 5.3%. The BoC’s Beaudry noted last week that it would be natural to see the u/e rate increase a bit ahead as they rein in excess demand.
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