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Energy Aspects Forecasts Weak West of Suez Diesel Demand

OIL PRODUCTS

Energy Aspects expects diesel demand west of the Suez to average just 16.6m b/d this quarter, down by 0.3m b/d y/y, the lowest Q1 demand for any non-pandemic year since 2017.

  • A mild winter and softer natural gas prices limiting gas to liquid switching were cited as the key reasons.
  • East of Suez, Q1 demand is seen rising 0.35m b/d y/y with Chinese demand up by 92k b/d y/y on country’s continued reopening.
  • Energy Aspects expects Chinese diesel exports to remain high y/y in Q1 and early Q2, at 0.4–0.5m b/d.

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