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Energy Drives Sharp PPI Slowdown, Core PPI Remains Robust

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EUROZONE JAN PPI -2.8% M/M (FCST -0.4%); DEC +1.1% M/M

EUROZONE JAN PPI +15.0% Y/Y (FCST +17.8%); DEC +24.6% Y/Y

  • Eurozone factory-gate inflation eased sharply in January, falling -2.8% m/m and cooling a marked 9.6pp to +15.0% y/y.
  • This was substantially lower than the -0.4% m/m and +18.8% y/y expected by consensus.
  • The decline was chiefly due to the -9.4% m/m fall in energy prices and skewed further to the downside by the massive -25.2% m/m fall in Irish PPI (which tends to be volatile).
  • Core PPI (ex. energy) rose +1.1% m/m, slowing a more modest 1.3pp to +11.1% y/y in January.
  • This was due to broad-based price growth amongst intermediate goods, capital goods, nondurable and durable consumer goods.
  • With factory-gate inflation seen as an early indicator for CPI, this data adds to the sticky core inflation conundrum faced by the ECB.

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