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Energy Intel See Russia and Refining Cap Uncertainties

OIL

Energy Intelligence balances show the world should have enough crude oil through 2023 if some spare capacity is tapped, with a wider margin of error if an Iran nuclear deal can be clinched.

  • They see product demand growing by 2.1mbpd in 2022 and 1.9mbpd in 2023 and a small supply surplus which would help replenish inventories. High prices for refined products like gasoline and diesel could loosen markets.
  • Russia's ability to continue exports, particularly products, and the global refining sector's capacity to meet consumption are significant uncertainties.
  • They expect global refining capacity to increase by 3mbpd in 2022 and 2023, but this is not enough to offset the 4mbpd of throughput capacity lost during the pandemic.
  • US, Norway, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are expected to increase production adding 1mbpd to global supply in the short term, with an additional 2mbpd next year.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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