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Energy Intel See Russia and Refining Cap Uncertainties

OIL

Energy Intelligence balances show the world should have enough crude oil through 2023 if some spare capacity is tapped, with a wider margin of error if an Iran nuclear deal can be clinched.

  • They see product demand growing by 2.1mbpd in 2022 and 1.9mbpd in 2023 and a small supply surplus which would help replenish inventories. High prices for refined products like gasoline and diesel could loosen markets.
  • Russia's ability to continue exports, particularly products, and the global refining sector's capacity to meet consumption are significant uncertainties.
  • They expect global refining capacity to increase by 3mbpd in 2022 and 2023, but this is not enough to offset the 4mbpd of throughput capacity lost during the pandemic.
  • US, Norway, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are expected to increase production adding 1mbpd to global supply in the short term, with an additional 2mbpd next year.

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