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Energy Prices Push Portuguese and Irish Inflation In Opposite Directions

EUROZONE DATA

This morning also saw the release of Portuguese and Irish flash inflation for January. In Portugal, the headline HICP estimate rose to 2.6% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior) after 4 consecutive months of deceleration prior. In Ireland, flash HICP was 2.7% Y/Y (vs 3.2% prior).

  • There was no consensus for either set of data.

The acceleration of the Portuguese headline rate was a result of "price increases in electricity and the ending of the VAT exemption for several essential food items" according to the press release.

  • As a result, NSA energy and processed/unprocessed food components turned positive on a sequential NSA monthly basis (after negative December prints), with the annual inflation rates also increasing.
  • Core CPI (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) fell a touch to 2.46% Y/Y (vs 2.64% prior).
  • Headline CPI was 2.34% Y/Y (vs 1.42% prior) and 0.05% M/M (vs -0.41% prior).
  • Headline HICP was 2.6% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior) and -0.1% M/M (vs -0.7% prior).
  • Portugal had a 2.4% weight in the Eurozone HICP basket in 2023.
In Ireland, core CPI (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) reversed December's uptick to fall to 3.8% Y/Y (vs 4.3% prior). The fall in headline rate was once again aided by energy base effects, with energy inflation -0.8% M/M and -7.0% Y/Y (vs -6.4% prior).
  • Ireland had a 1.5% weight in the Eurozone HICP basket in 2023.
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