EPP Confirms VdL As Lead Candidate Ahead Of Elections

As was widely expected, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) political grouping has approved incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the group's lead candidate (spitzenkandidat) ahead of the June European Parliament elections. This decision makes VdL the clear favourite to remain in post following the elections, with the EPP almost certain of remaining the largest single group within the parliament.

• It should be noted that the spitzenkandidat system is neither formally entrenched in EU law, nor a guarantee of that particlar candidate emerging as Commission president. Indeed, in the run-up to the 2019 election the EPP had German MEP Manfred Weber as its presumptive Commission president candidate.
• However, during subsequent negotiations with other political groups (a requisite given there is no majority group in the chamber), Weber was deemed an unacceptable candidate by the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe (RE). This resulted in VdL being plucked from a six-year stint as German Defence Minister, becoming the compromise candidate.
• As such, given the uncertainty facing the historically dominant groups (EPP, S&D, RE) ahead of the elections, given the rise of the right-wing groups Identity and Democracy and the European Conservatives and Reformists, there could be a lengthy period of negotiations post-election that both hinders the Commission's ability to present new initiatives and could result in an unexpected candidate taking over the presidency.