Free Trial

Equities Retrace Sharply Higher This Month Despite Decelerating Economy

CHINA
  • In the past 9 months, we have seen that the sharp contraction in Chinese liquidity combined with the deceleration in the economic activity have been weighing on domestic asset prices.
  • The Hang Seng Index was down nearly 25% in the beginning of October, and was testing the low of its LT downward trending channel.
  • However, risky assets have been trending sharply higher in the past two weeks, with Chinese equities up over 10% despite disappointing data.
  • We saw this week that China Q3 GDP and September Industrial Output came in below expectations at 4.9% YoY (vs. 5% exp.) and 3.1% YoY (vs. 3..8% exp.), respectively.
  • The Citi surprise index has also been going down in the past 15 months, implying that economic data have constantly disappointed.
  • Hang Seng Index is currently testing its 26,154 resistance, which corresponds to the 50% Fibo retracement of the 21,139 – 31,168 range.
  • Next level to watch on the topside stands at 26,694 (100DMA), followed by 27,337 (38.2%).
  • On the downside, first support to watch stands at 24,970 (61.8% Fibo).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.