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Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
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- In the past 9 months, we have seen that the sharp contraction in Chinese liquidity combined with the deceleration in the economic activity have been weighing on domestic asset prices.
- The Hang Seng Index was down nearly 25% in the beginning of October, and was testing the low of its LT downward trending channel.
- However, risky assets have been trending sharply higher in the past two weeks, with Chinese equities up over 10% despite disappointing data.
- We saw this week that China Q3 GDP and September Industrial Output came in below expectations at 4.9% YoY (vs. 5% exp.) and 3.1% YoY (vs. 3..8% exp.), respectively.
- The Citi surprise index has also been going down in the past 15 months, implying that economic data have constantly disappointed.
- Hang Seng Index is currently testing its 26,154 resistance, which corresponds to the 50% Fibo retracement of the 21,139 – 31,168 range.
- Next level to watch on the topside stands at 26,694 (100DMA), followed by 27,337 (38.2%).
- On the downside, first support to watch stands at 24,970 (61.8% Fibo).