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Erdogan Defeat in Municipal Elections Drives Lira Relief Rally

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY sits just under 1% lower compared to pre-election levels, with the pair close to the 32.00 handle at typing. The spread on Turkey’s 5y CDS have narrowed further from the March highs, while the Borsa Istanbul Bank index recorded a fresh record high earlier today. Yields on 2-, 5- and 10-year government bonds all sit lower today, extending this week’s move lower, though we remain well-contained within this month’s ranges.
  • Comments from President Erdogan’s first speech after defeat in the municipal elections provided some relief to Turkish assets – he said current economic policies will yield positive results, suggesting no imminent threat to the more-orthodox policy regime that has been in place since May last year.
  • While the election itself was seen as having little bearing on the direction of economic policy, it had been closely watched to gauge wider national support for Erdogan given the president was by-and-large the face of the local election campaign.
  • Under the constitution, Erdogan is not allowed to run for the presidency again in 2028 as this current term counts as his second. However, there had been speculation that had the AKP secured a strong set of results then the government could look to enact a constitutional amendment to allow Erdogan to run for another term in office.
  • Instead, the vote cemented Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s status as Erdogan’s top opponent of eventually running for Turkey’s highest office.
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