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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Political betting markets have recorded a major shift in sentiment following the first round of the presidential election, with incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan given an 87.0% implied probability of retaining office according to data from Smarkets. With Erdogan outperforming polling expectations and falling just short of a first-round win, his implied probability of winning rose from 34.0% when polls opened to 87.0% at the time of writing.
- For opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the blow of falling well short of expectations and the fact that Erdogan's AK Party and its allies retained control of the Grand National Assembly has seen his implied probability of victory fall from 68.0% on 14 May to 16.7% at the time of writing.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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