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Erdogan Trailing Both Main CHP Candidates In 2nd Round AKAM Poll

TURKEY

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trails both leading candidates for the Republican People's Party (CHP) presidential nomination in the latest 2nd round poll from AKAM.

  • AKAM poll: Presidential election, run-off scenarios:
    • İmamoglu (CHP-S&D): 60% (+1), Erdogan (AKP~NI): 40% (-1)
    • Yavas (CHP-S&D): 58% (+1), Erdogan (AKP~NI): 42% (-1). +/- vs. August 2021. Fieldwork: 21-28 August 2021. Sample size: 2,460
  • The next Turkish general election is not due to be held until June 2023 at the latest, meaning there is a significant amount of time for Erdogan's fortunes to change before then. Nevertheless, the significant disadvantage the incumbent finds himself at against his likely centre-left opponents.
  • First round polling shows Erdogan with a lead and close to the 50% threshold required to avoid a run-off. However, in these polls the various CHP candidates are all included on the ballot. In first round polls where a single CHP candidate is available for selection Erdogan's support falls well below 50%, indicating that a first round win (as recorded in 2018) is unlikely next time around.

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