Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Latest polling from outlet Metropoll shows President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trailing in all hypothetical second-round election scenarios a year out from the vote. The next general election takes place on 18 June 2023.
- Erdogan leads in most first-round polls, but looks unlikely to win the 50%+1 required of the vote to avoid a run-off election with the second-highest placed candidate.
- The polling shows Erdogan facing four potential second-round candidates, three from the main opposition centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) and one from the centre-right Good Party (IYI). The CHP is set to have party head Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as its presidential candidate, but two other potential candidates that have declined to run - Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu - are also included. IYI head Meral Akşener has also declined to run.
- Given that three of the four potential candidates polled are not set to run, it could prove worrying to the opposition that the most likely individual facing Erdogan in a run-off has the narrowest lead. Kılıçdaroğlu leads Erdogan by 54% to 46%, while Yavaş leads 60% to 40%, İmamoğlu leads 58% to 42%, and Akşener leads 55% to 45%.
- Should Erdogan lose power it would mark a major shift in Turkish gov't policy, with Erdogan and his nationalist Justice and Development Party (AKP) having held the prime minister's/president's office since 2002.
Chart 1. Turkey, Hypothetical 2nd Round Opinion Polling, %
Source: Metropoll, @europeelects. Fieldwork: 11-15 June 2022. S. size: 2,123
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok