Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Opinion polling from Estonia ahead of the country's 5 March general election shows that PM Kaja Kallas' centre-right liberal Reform Party (RE) retains its lead and is on course for a plurality of seats, but that together with its current allies in the coalition gov't could fall short of a majority, resulting in a change in gov't composition. While Estonia is the fourth-smallest eurozone economy, the country has gained international prominence due to its hard-line hawkish stance towards Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. As such, any change in gov't parties will be watched closely in Kyiv and other Ukraine-allied capitals.
- The current gov't is formed by Kallas' RE, the centre-left Social Democrats (SDE) and the centre-right Isamaa (Fatherland) party. Since Oct 2022, the combined support for gov't parties has only exceeded that of the combined opposition parties in a single poll, making the inclusion of other parties likely a requirement if Kallas is to retain power.
- Neither of the two largest opposition parties, the right-wing nationalist Conservative People's Party (EKRE) or populist Russian-minority interest Centre Party, are likely to join Kallas' gov't due to major policy differences. Kallas warned that an EKRE-led gov't would lead to Estonia becoming a "closed, embittered, small country,”
- The most likely election outcome is the inclusion of the liberal centrist Estonia 200 (E200) in a Kallas-led administration, either in a 4-party gov't or at the expense of the SDE or Isamaa parties. This should ensure a continued hawkish line on Russia and support for Estonia's EU and EZ position.
Source: Turu-uuringute AS, Norstat, Kantar Emor, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.