Estonian Parties Still Working To Form New Gov't To Avoid Snap Election

Estonia's largest political party, the centre-right liberal Reform Party, remains in talks with the liberal populist Centre Party to form a new gov't following the collapse of the previous gov't just under a week ago.

• The previous gov't formed by PM Jüri Ratas's centre party, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland) party and the right-wing eurosceptic Conservative People's Party (EKRE), collapsed following the revelation that a key figure in the Centre Party had allegedly accepted money for the party in exchange for favours related to a real estate development.
• Reform Party head Kaja Kallas has been tasked by the president with forming a new gov't. She has until 28 January to form a new majority gov't or snap elections will be called.
• Today, Reform's deputy chair Keit Pentus-Rosimannus stated that the party would not look to include Isamaa in a governing coalition due to the party's 'internal divisions' which ruled the party out of gov't negotiations. With Reform ruling out working alongside the EKRE as well this leaves a grand coalition with the Centre Party the only mathematical path to a majority.
• However, the Centre Party, as well as being the main political opponent of Reform is also viewed as the party representative of Estonia's Russian-speaking minority, as well as having relatively close relations with Russia's governing United Russia party. This causes unease for the staunchly pro-EU reform party.
• Should an election be called, opinion polls show the Reform Party still as the most popular group with the Centre Party in second place. However, the social liberal centrist Estonia 200 party is polling around 15-20% (having failed to enter parliament in the 2019 election) and would be a potential coalition ally for Reform should an election take place.