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EU Coal to Gas Switching to Continue in 2024

NATGAS

The trend for European coal to gas fuel switching is expected to continue this year according to Rystad Energy via Reuters.

  • "There has been quite a lot of coal-to-gas switching in recent months. We saw clear evidence of a large shift in coal-to-gas switching in 2023, which has continued into 2024," said Fabian Skarboe Roenningen at Rystad Energy.
  • More coal-to-gas switching is expected in countries with both coal generation and either gas generation or transmission capacity to import gas.
  • Gas prices have fallen closer to pre Ukraine war levels while greater use of renewable energy is discouraging use of heavily polluting coal.
  • EU carbon permit prices have also fallen in the last six months to around €61/mt but would need to decline further to €47/mt or lower for even high-efficiency coal plants to be able to replace low-efficiency gas plants in Q1, according to Veyt analyst Marcus Ferdinand.
  • France, Spain, Italy and Britain have either phased out coal completely or have limited scope for large-scale coal-to-gas switching.
  • Gas power generation in Poland was up 32% year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, while hard coal and lignite use fell 15% and 10% respectively over that period, according to Forum Energii.

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