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EUR Market Wrap

CREDIT PRE-MARKET
  • 2y/10y bunds closed -2bp/-4bp after Eurozone flash July HICP came in slightly above what had been expected entering the week, though this had limited impact on ECB cut pricing which continues to see two full cuts by year end. US data was on the soft side and the US Treasury refunding announcement brought no negative surprises, extending a nascent rally through the afternoon. EZ Inflation Insight: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65536/July2024EZCPIReview.pdf
  • Main/XO ended -1bp/-4bp at 54.7bp/295bp while €IG/€HY was flat/-2bp with Cap Goods the only IG sector wider. Primary was kept open by Saint-Gobain in a dual-tranche 5y/12y deal that tightened 30bps apiece to end with NICs of 0bp/5bp.
  • SXXP ended +0.8% with Tech the notable mover at +2.6% though remaining the worst MoM performer at -6% while SPX was +1.6%. Notable €IG movers included Teleperformance +10%, Bogwarner +9%, Legrand +7%, SCOR SE -6%, FerroVial -5%, WP Carey -5%, BBVA -5%.
  • Looking ahead, we have the BoE decision, along with final EU PMI reads. Later US jobless claims, July manufacturing ISM/PMI, Challenger job cuts and Q2 productivity/ULC print.
  • The immediate reaction to the FOMC’s July decision was slightly hawkish, with the Committee defying some expectations of revised forward guidance that would strongly imply a September rate cut. But the language and tone of Chair Powell’s press conference provided sufficient dovish assurances that the bar to cuts soon is low, and he explicitly noted that easing "could be on the table as soon as September". The market impact by the conclusion of the meeting was a slight increase in implied rate cut expectations, with a September reduction seen as an even surer bet.
  • SX5E futures are +0.3% while SPX futures are +0.6%. Looking ahead, we have the BoE decision, along with final EU PMI reads. Later US jobless claims, July manufacturing ISM/PMI, Challenger job cuts and Q2 productivity/ULC print.

Date

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

01/08/2024

0715/0915

**

ES

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)

01/08/2024

0745/0945

**

IT

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)

01/08/2024

0750/0950

**

FR

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)

01/08/2024

0755/0955

**

DE

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)

01/08/2024

0800/1000

**

EU

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)

01/08/2024

0830/0930

**

UK

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)

01/08/2024

0900/1100

**

EU

Unemployment

01/08/2024

1100/1200

***

UK

Bank Of England Interest Rate

01/08/2024

1100/1200

***

UK

Bank Of England Interest Rate

01/08/2024

1130/1230

UK

BoE Press Conference

01/08/2024

-

***

US

Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales

01/08/2024

1230/0830

***

US

Jobless Claims

01/08/2024

1230/0830

**

US

WASDE Weekly Import/Export

01/08/2024

1230/0830

**

US

Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity

01/08/2024

1300/1400

UK

BOE Monthly Decision Maker Panel Data

01/08/2024

1345/0945

***

US

S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)

01/08/2024

1400/1000

***

US

ISM Manufacturing Index

01/08/2024

1400/1000

*

US

Construction Spending

01/08/2024

1430/1030

**

US

Natural Gas Stocks

01/08/2024

1530/1130

*

US

US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result

01/08/2024

1530/1130

**

US

US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result

01/08/2024

1615/1715

UK

BOE's Pill MPR virtual Q&A

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