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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- 2y/10y bunds closed -2bp/-4bp after Eurozone flash July HICP came in slightly above what had been expected entering the week, though this had limited impact on ECB cut pricing which continues to see two full cuts by year end. US data was on the soft side and the US Treasury refunding announcement brought no negative surprises, extending a nascent rally through the afternoon. EZ Inflation Insight: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65536/July2024EZCPIReview.pdf
- Main/XO ended -1bp/-4bp at 54.7bp/295bp while €IG/€HY was flat/-2bp with Cap Goods the only IG sector wider. Primary was kept open by Saint-Gobain in a dual-tranche 5y/12y deal that tightened 30bps apiece to end with NICs of 0bp/5bp.
- SXXP ended +0.8% with Tech the notable mover at +2.6% though remaining the worst MoM performer at -6% while SPX was +1.6%. Notable €IG movers included Teleperformance +10%, Bogwarner +9%, Legrand +7%, SCOR SE -6%, FerroVial -5%, WP Carey -5%, BBVA -5%.
- Looking ahead, we have the BoE decision, along with final EU PMI reads. Later US jobless claims, July manufacturing ISM/PMI, Challenger job cuts and Q2 productivity/ULC print.
- The immediate reaction to the FOMC’s July decision was slightly hawkish, with the Committee defying some expectations of revised forward guidance that would strongly imply a September rate cut. But the language and tone of Chair Powell’s press conference provided sufficient dovish assurances that the bar to cuts soon is low, and he explicitly noted that easing "could be on the table as soon as September". The market impact by the conclusion of the meeting was a slight increase in implied rate cut expectations, with a September reduction seen as an even surer bet.
- SX5E futures are +0.3% while SPX futures are +0.6%. Looking ahead, we have the BoE decision, along with final EU PMI reads. Later US jobless claims, July manufacturing ISM/PMI, Challenger job cuts and Q2 productivity/ULC print.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event | |
01/08/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/08/2024 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/08/2024 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/08/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
01/08/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) | |
01/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment | |
01/08/2024 | 1100/1200 | *** | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
01/08/2024 | 1100/1200 | *** | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
01/08/2024 | 1130/1230 | UK | BoE Press Conference | ||
01/08/2024 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales | |
01/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims | |
01/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
01/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity | |
01/08/2024 | 1300/1400 | UK | BOE Monthly Decision Maker Panel Data | ||
01/08/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) | |
01/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index | |
01/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending | |
01/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks | |
01/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
01/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result | |
01/08/2024 | 1615/1715 | UK | BOE's Pill MPR virtual Q&A |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.