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EUR/PLN Briefly Pierces 4.25, Ranges Tight Across EM FX Amid Thin Liquidity

CEE FX
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The BBDXY is a little below late Friday levels, although the lack of meaningful macro news flow and U.S./UK holidays tempered activity in Asia-Pac hours, resulting in relatively tight ranges across EM FX.

  • The Polish zloty is outperforming its CE3 peers at the margins, with EURPLN down 0.05% at typing. Overnight, the cross fell 1pip below the 4.25 round-number figure - a level which limited losses in April and May - placing it at its lowest since 2020. A clear break of this level could expose the 2020 low of 4.2036.
  • EURHUF trades ~0.1% in the green at typing, but still lies within close proximity to Friday’s multi-month low of 383.70. Overall, bearish conditions remain prevalent, supported by moving average studies crossing into bear-mode position. The focus is on 382.34, the Feb 1 low.
  • EURCZK had printed a fresh multi-month low of 24.622 earlier in the session but has since recovered to around 24.690. Overall, familiar technical levels remain in play - sustained losses beyond the May 16 low of 24.641 could revive bearish sentiment, drawing attention to the Jan 8 YTD low of 24.458. On the flip side, a move through the 200-DMA (24.780) could expose the 100-DMA at 25.100.
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The BBDXY is a little below late Friday levels, although the lack of meaningful macro news flow and U.S./UK holidays tempered activity in Asia-Pac hours, resulting in relatively tight ranges across EM FX.

  • The Polish zloty is outperforming its CE3 peers at the margins, with EURPLN down 0.05% at typing. Overnight, the cross fell 1pip below the 4.25 round-number figure - a level which limited losses in April and May - placing it at its lowest since 2020. A clear break of this level could expose the 2020 low of 4.2036.
  • EURHUF trades ~0.1% in the green at typing, but still lies within close proximity to Friday’s multi-month low of 383.70. Overall, bearish conditions remain prevalent, supported by moving average studies crossing into bear-mode position. The focus is on 382.34, the Feb 1 low.
  • EURCZK had printed a fresh multi-month low of 24.622 earlier in the session but has since recovered to around 24.690. Overall, familiar technical levels remain in play - sustained losses beyond the May 16 low of 24.641 could revive bearish sentiment, drawing attention to the Jan 8 YTD low of 24.458. On the flip side, a move through the 200-DMA (24.780) could expose the 100-DMA at 25.100.