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EUR/USD Firm Into Europe, $1.2285 in View

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD broke above noted resistance between $1.2240/50 Tuesday, initially stalled at $1.2262 (1.618% swing target $1.2182-1.2052) before it edged on to $1.2266 in early NY, reversed to $1.2227, closing the day around $1.2252 .
  • Fed Clarida accepted that going forward there will be a point when the FOMC will begin discussions on taper, but such an event will be data dependent. Fed Daly noted that the Fed has moved from thinking about talking about tapering, to talking about talking about tapering. Slight hawkish tones had little effect on the market.
  • Asia eased rate to $1.2242 before demand edged it to $1.2262 ahead of the Europe open.
  • Resistance $1.2266, $1.2280/85, more into $1.2300(option barrier?)
  • Support $1.2242, $1.2227/20, $1.2200($1.2201 61.8% $1.2161-1.2266) ahead of $1.2186(76.4%).
  • France Confidence data 0645GMT, ECB Villeroy 0900GMT.
  • US Fed Quarles 1400GMT again at 1900GMT
  • Today is month-end value for USD pairs (US closed Monday, and UK) and could see some US corporate USD demand emerge into the NY session. Month-end fixing flow could be seen Friday(prelim models suggest weak USD demand) and Monday,
  • MNI Techs: EUR/USD has breached resistance at 1.2245, May 19 high. This strengthens the bullish outlook and opens 1.2285, Jan 8 high. Further out, the 2021 high of 1.2349, Jan 6 high beckons. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2052, May 13 low while initial support remains 1.2160, the May 19 low. A break of 1.2052 would signal a top.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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