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EURHUF Pierces Yesterday’s Highs as Forint Lags Regional Peers

HUF
  • EURHUF has started Wednesday trade with an upward bias, up 0.3% on the day at typing and near yesterday’s high of 387.55. Price remains some way off last week’s pre-NBH highs at 390.49, a break of which is needed to strengthen the bullish theme. Underperformance of the forint sees PLNHUF up a moderate 0.4% today. While we are currently below yesterday’s extremes, last week’s ~12-month high remains within relatively close proximity.
  • A weak set of Industrial Production data yesterday briefly prompted HUF weakness amid rising concerns of a weak recovery of the Hungarian economy. With CPI data on Friday expected to show further disinflation (from +5.5% Y/Y in December to +4.3% in January), pressure will likely mount on the central bank to accelerate its easing cycle to prompt economic growth.
  • Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs noted earlier in the week that they expect the NBH to remain attentive of HUF developments through its cutting cycle, which they say should limit the extent of sharp currency moves. However, even with this in mind, they say the Forint may struggle to rally much beyond their 12-month EURHUF forecast of 380.
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