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EURHUF Up 0.75% at Open, Technical Downtrend Remains Intact

HUNGARY
  • EURHUF trades 0.75% higher at the open after price action earlier this week saw the cross pierce the 380.00 psychological handle and print a new 9-month low at 377.15. Pessimistic comments from Development Minister Navracsics over Hungary’s chances of unfreezing the $30b of frozen EU funds may provide headwind to forint gains.
  • Technical trend conditions nevertheless remain bearish. The breach of the 384.43 Feb 3 low has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and opens 376.06, a 1.236 price swing projection. Below here, 370.55 marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for the 2022 upleg.
  • Initial resistance is at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 394.03. A clear break of the EMA is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery - towards 401.20, the Nov 17 high.

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