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Euribor decoupling

STIR FUTURES

There has been asharp decoupling of moves in the Euribor strip from moves in SONIA or Eurodollar futures today.

  • The Euribor strip continues to move lower, particularly the Reds and further out the curve after the ECB accellerated tapering. Thus far, unlike other press conferences the moves have been reinforced rather than reversed.
  • However, SONIA futures remain higher on the day and Eurodollar futures (outside the Whites) are only a little lower, although during the press conference these have started moving slowly lower. Why have these not been moved by the ECB and Euribor? It seems we might have got to a point where the market has realised that the ECB becoming more hawkish is not going to make the BOE or Fed more hawkish. There are already more than 6 hikes fully priced in for the remainder of the year for both central banks, and the ECB being hawkish is unlikely to accellerate the other central banks' hiking plans. If the ECB had been more dovish would SONIA/ED futures have moved higher? Maybe. But commodity prices and geopolitical factors are more important to these markets than what the ECB says at present.

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