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EURO SUMMARY: EURUSD Path of Least Resistance Remains Lower

EURO SUMMARY
CEEMEABulletGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegion
  • Eurozone inflation data is now out of the way, and with the FOMC minutes likely to maintain a cautious tone, all focus will turn to Friday’s jobs report from the US. In the meantime, EURUSD’s trend outlook remains bearish and price action following the French first-round indicates that rallies remain good selling opportunities. Resistance at the 50-day EMA (intersecting today at 1.0771), has capped the latest correction well and should keep the market’s focus on the bear trigger at 1.0666, Jun 26 low.
  • It is also worth noting, EURGBP failed to recover back above 0.8500 (also 50-day EMA), the key technical pivot for the cross, and while remaining below this level on a closing basis the outlook remains bearish.
  • Sell-side notes appear in agreement with the Euro’s inability to capitalise on the initial topside momentum seen Monday. MUFG stated we are not expecting Monday’s relief rally for the euro to be sustained for long ahead of the second round, while ING doubt the euro will be able to entirely erase political risk premium this summer. 
  • Goldman Sachs added that with the French parliament potentially moving into a new sort of logjam, they think the currency can weaken further, and maintain their forecast of 1.05 in 3 months. JP Morgan’s view looks for the dollar to stay elevated (bullish view expressed currently through EUR and CNH puts vs. USD).
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  • Eurozone inflation data is now out of the way, and with the FOMC minutes likely to maintain a cautious tone, all focus will turn to Friday’s jobs report from the US. In the meantime, EURUSD’s trend outlook remains bearish and price action following the French first-round indicates that rallies remain good selling opportunities. Resistance at the 50-day EMA (intersecting today at 1.0771), has capped the latest correction well and should keep the market’s focus on the bear trigger at 1.0666, Jun 26 low.
  • It is also worth noting, EURGBP failed to recover back above 0.8500 (also 50-day EMA), the key technical pivot for the cross, and while remaining below this level on a closing basis the outlook remains bearish.
  • Sell-side notes appear in agreement with the Euro’s inability to capitalise on the initial topside momentum seen Monday. MUFG stated we are not expecting Monday’s relief rally for the euro to be sustained for long ahead of the second round, while ING doubt the euro will be able to entirely erase political risk premium this summer. 
  • Goldman Sachs added that with the French parliament potentially moving into a new sort of logjam, they think the currency can weaken further, and maintain their forecast of 1.05 in 3 months. JP Morgan’s view looks for the dollar to stay elevated (bullish view expressed currently through EUR and CNH puts vs. USD).