Europe Natgas Inventories Sufficient to Offset Strike Impacts: Commerzbank

High natural gas storage inventories in Europe will help offset any impacts of potential strike action, Commerzbank said in a note.

• EU gas storage inventories stand at 91.3% full as of the last update Aug. 21, according to AGSI. This compares to the five-year average for this time of year of 78.2%.
• Commerzbank also see a low probability of strikes lasting several months, should they even take place.
• According to estimates from Kpler, European LNG imports will fall to 8.2 million tons in August, the lowest level since November 2021, before the gas crisis in Europe began.
• “This indicates weak demand, which would avoid a sharp decline in gas stocks, especially given remaining Russian and Norwegian gas shipments,” Commerzbank said.
• Australian production does not have a direct impact to European LNG imports. However, any outage would see Asian buyers try and outbid Europe for available spot cargoes to replace the lost volumes.