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EUROPEAN DATA: Industrial Production M/M Tracking Below Consensus

EUROPEAN DATA
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Eurozone industrial production in September is due for release this morning, with our tracking of published Eurozone country readings pointing to a decline of around 2.0-2.1% M/M (vs Bloomberg consensus of -1.4%). This would reverse last month's gain of 1.8% M/M.

  • Eurostat uses industrial production numbers excluding construction, so the following country numbers may not reflect what was published as headline IP data from the national statistics agencies.
  • IP weakness looks to have been driven by Germany and Ireland (reversing both these countries' strength in August). The former declined 2.7% M/M (vs a rise of 3.2% in August), contributing around -0.9ppts to the Eurozone-wide industrial production reading in September. Ireland recorded a fall of 10.7% M/M, contributing -1.0ppt; this was the largest fall since January 2024 (following an increase of 3.0% in August), though the series continues to see large swings.
  • Four of the five largest Eurozone economies (including Germany) saw industrial production fall in September. The Netherlands saw IP fall 2.9% M/M - the biggest fall seen in 2024, France declined 0.9% and Italy edged down 0.4%.
  • Spain, in contrast, printed a gain of 0.9% M/M, after two consecutive months of decline. Despite this being the largest M/M Spanish increase since February 2024, Spanish IP remains below the average level seen throughout 2024.
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Eurozone industrial production in September is due for release this morning, with our tracking of published Eurozone country readings pointing to a decline of around 2.0-2.1% M/M (vs Bloomberg consensus of -1.4%). This would reverse last month's gain of 1.8% M/M.

  • Eurostat uses industrial production numbers excluding construction, so the following country numbers may not reflect what was published as headline IP data from the national statistics agencies.
  • IP weakness looks to have been driven by Germany and Ireland (reversing both these countries' strength in August). The former declined 2.7% M/M (vs a rise of 3.2% in August), contributing around -0.9ppts to the Eurozone-wide industrial production reading in September. Ireland recorded a fall of 10.7% M/M, contributing -1.0ppt; this was the largest fall since January 2024 (following an increase of 3.0% in August), though the series continues to see large swings.
  • Four of the five largest Eurozone economies (including Germany) saw industrial production fall in September. The Netherlands saw IP fall 2.9% M/M - the biggest fall seen in 2024, France declined 0.9% and Italy edged down 0.4%.
  • Spain, in contrast, printed a gain of 0.9% M/M, after two consecutive months of decline. Despite this being the largest M/M Spanish increase since February 2024, Spanish IP remains below the average level seen throughout 2024.