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European data lead Bond futures lower

BONDS
  • EGBs and Bund fell today after some European data beat expectations, Bund is down 140 ticks and Buxl 300 ticks at the time of typing.
  • The aggregate euro area headline inflation surged a further 0.3pp to a fresh high of +8.9% y/y in the July flash.
  • This follows decent upside surprises to German, French and Spanish HICP this morning.
  • Only Italian HICP managed to edge down (by 0.1pp).
  • The move in Bund initially pushed the Greek/Bund spread through the July low, and to its tightest level since mid April.
  • Immediate support was seen at the April low 198.82, and the lowest level since February.
  • This level held, and the spread reversed the tightening bias, as Greece caught up, and now trades at 210bps, 2.7bps wider.
  • Gilt has traded in line with Europe, down 95 ticks at the time of typing, in turn keeping the Gilt/Bund spread flat so far today.
  • Tnotes were initially in the green on the European open, but have been drag into red territory, by the German Bund.
  • Nonetheless, Treasuries are still outperforming, as desks position for more gradual hikes from the Fed, but all will be data dependent going forward.
  • Looking ahead, out of the US, PCE core deflator (june), MNI Chicago PMI (July), Michigan will be final reading.
  • And investors will also look for potential Month End flows later today.
  • Extensions are small/average for the EU and US, but large for the UK.
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