EUROPEAN INFLATION: Swiss Aug CPI Preview - Analyst Views Differ Somewhat (2/2)

Key excerpts from analysts views we have received:

UBS: Core 1.1%, Headline 1.2%:

• "We expect a step down in energy inflation (3.7pp to 2.5% y/y), an increase in food inflation (+0.5pp to 0.6% y/y)."
• "We see upside risks to our estimate stemming from changes in several regulated components (education, social protection and financial services) and uncertainty around the pass-through from the reference rate increase on rents."
• "Overall, we expect inflation to average 1.3% in 2024 but have recently lowered our 2025 forecast by 0.2pp to 1.1% due to a likely decline in electricity prices."

Nomura: Core 1.3%, Headline 1.4%:

• On rent inflation: "We think landlords will have passed on most of the rent increases by now, so there should be a slowing in the quarterly pace of rent inflation in Q3 to 0.5%. We think most of the uncertainty in August will be from the rent component. In the medium-term, rent inflation is unlikely to prove persistent as a lower SNB policy rate is likely to eventually feed into the mortgage reference rate."
• "We also expect a rise in fuel prices of 3% based on petrol pump prices"
• For context, note that Nomura was rather looking for softer Swiss CPI figures relative to consensus in recent prior prints.

Citi: Core 1.0%, Headline 1.1%

• "Inflation could also be lower as lower interest rates weigh down on rent increases. For now, we still remain sceptical of further rate cuts, as we do not see the SNB desiring an accommodative stance."