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European inflation the focus ahead of Powell and a slew of US data

BONDS
  • Inflation has been the main theme of the morning session once again, with the release of a one tenth higher-than-expected French HICP print setting the tone this morning. Bunds then drifted a big higher ahead of the Italian and pan-Eurozone prints which were released simultaneously at 10:00GMT / 5:00ET. They showed a higher Italian print but softer Eurozone print, although core CPI was in line with expectations at 5.0%Y/Y. This was enough for Bund futures to move lower again - but not hitting the intraday lows seen after the French HICP print.
  • Even so, we have seen Schatz yields move almost 7bp higher on the day with the German curve bear flattening. Gilts have followed to a smaller extent while US Treasuries have seen even smaller moves.
  • It's a busy day for US data with ADP employment due at 8:15ET, the second print of Q3 GDP due for release at 8:30ET, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45ET and JOLTs data at 10:00ET.
  • This data is all ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Powell on the economic outlook and labour market. This will be closely watched ahead of the December FOMC meeting. We will also hear today from Fed's Bowman and Cook. And the Beige Book will be released at 14:00ET.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-2+ today at 113-02 with 10y UST yields down -1.4bp at 3.732% and 2y yields down -0.3bp at 4.474%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.63 today at 140.75 with 10y Bund yields up 3.5bp at 1.953% and Schatz yields up 6.7bp at 2.111%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.43 today at 105.47 with 10y yields up 3.1bp at 3.126% and 2y yields up 1.8bp at 3.226%.
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