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European Peak Rates Continue To Soften On US Bank Spillover

STIR

ECB and BoE terminal rate expectations are a couple of basis points off session lows but overall continue to soften as US bank concerns spill over into Europe.

  • ECB terminal Depo rate pricing is -5.6bp today at 3.75% (implying 75bp of further hikes to Oct), 15bp lower than Monday's close.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -2.3bp to 4.91% (implying 66bp of further hikes to Sep); that's down about 8bp vs Monday's close.
  • May hikes remain fully priced though: 31bp for the ECB (roughly 25% prob of a 50bp hike), 27bp for BoE.

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