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Even Further Curve Inversion/Flattening With Bostic & Beige Book Stagflation

US TSYS
  • Bostic’s (’24 voter) implied openness for a larger than 75bp hike and Beige Book comments hinting at stagflation concerns see yield curve inversion mount and the 3M to 10Y spread tumble further.
  • 2s10s inverts further to -23bps (-15bp on the day) having earlier hit the most inverted levels since 2000, whilst it also drivers 2s5s to -12bp (-9bps).
  • The 3M to 10Y spread was surprisingly steady with the US CPI beat before starting to fall after the BoC’s surprise 100bp hike, and now sits at 50bps (-27bps).
  • Beige Book on prices: substantial price increases seen in all districts, price pressure seen lasting through year-end.
  • Beige Book on growth: outlook for future GDP growth mostly negative, contacts expect more demand weakening in 6-12 months, several districts saw signs of demand slowdown and contacts in 5 districts noted recession concerns.

Source: Bloomberg

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