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Export Growth To US Slowing, Other Headwinds Persist

SOUTH KOREA

South Korea first 20-days trade data struck similar tones with recent trends. Exports were down -11% y/y for the first 20-days of the month. It was the same in terms of the daily average for exports in the first 20-days. Note for the first 20-days of March exports were down -17.4% y/y, for the full month of March exports were down -13.6% y/y.

  • Chip exports were down -39.3% y/y, versus -44.7% for the first 20-days of March. Exports to China remained soft -26.8% in y/y terms, which remain around recent lows.
  • Exports to the US were better +1.4% y/y for the first 20-days of April, but the trend is still slowing. We were running comfortably above double digit pace late last year, earlier this year, see the chart below.
  • So, whilst external demand from China is expected to improve, some offset could come from weaker momentum out of the US.
  • On the import side, we were at -11.8% y/y for the first 20-days of April. Lower commodity prices are likely helping at the margin, but the first 20-days trade deficit still stood at -$4.14bn.

Fig 1: South Korean Exports, First 20-days Of April, To China & The US

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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