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Export Growth Troughed, Asia Ex China Struggling

GLOBAL

CPB world export volume growth in April eased to 0.1% y/y from 3.8% the previous month. It appears to have troughed at -2.7% y/y in December 2022 with 3-month momentum signalling some improvement in the months ahead. The stabilisation has been driven by emerging markets, and specifically China, with 3-month momentum rising to 23.1% in April from 11.9% while developed markets are negative 5.1%.

  • Asian exports outside of China have been struggling in recent months.
  • Developed markets’ export volume growth fell to -1% y/y from +1.4% in March with shipments from the euro area particularly weak at -1.9% y/y down from +1.5% y/y. The US also softened to +0.4% y/y from +8.1% y/y. Advanced Asia ex Japan was also weak falling 5.7% y/y after -3.6%.
  • Emerging countries export volumes rose 2% y/y but that was down from 8.2%. After 5 straight months of contraction, China’s shipments rose 16.2% y/y in March and then 11.1% in April. Emerging Asia ex China was weak though falling 8.8% y/y down from -1.1%.
  • Export prices rose 0.6% m/m in April but momentum is negative. Energy prices rose 3.4% m/m after 3 straight declines but momentum is very weak and they are down 37.8% y/y. Raw materials rose slightly in April but are down 23.8% y/y. The sharp decline in commodity prices over the last year is going to impact exporters but help to alleviate headline CPI pressures generally.
Global exports y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

Global exports y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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