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Extending Modest Decline For Later Meetings With FOMC Minutes Eyed

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have cooled a touch further after yesterday’s holiday-thinned softening, supported at the margin by softer European data. There’s a similar story out to the implied terminal rate with the Nov meeting before some modestly larger cuts priced thereafter.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.07% effective: +21bp Jul (-0.5bp from Mon close), +27bp Sep (-1bp), +33.5bp Nov (-1bp), +28bp Dec (-2.5bp), +20bp Jan (-4bp).
  • The 5bp of cuts from the Nov terminal to year-end builds to a cumulative 57bp of cuts by Jun’24 vs 52bps at the Mon close.
  • The FOMC minutes are in focus today at 1400ET before the next Fedspeak from NY Fed’s Williams (voter) at 1600ET with no text nor media Q&A afterwards.

Source: Bloomberg

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