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Fall In December IP Despite Recent Survey Recoveries

SPAIN DATA

Spanish industrial production ended the year on a weak note, printing at -0.3% M/M SWDA in December (vs a 6-analyst consensus of -0.1% and a 0.1pp upwardly revised +1.1% prior) and -0.2% Y/Y SWDA (vs a 0.1pp upwardly revised +0.9% prior).

  • The unadjusted annual series saw a larger -4.0% Y/Y decline (vs a 0.1pp downwardly revised 1.0% prior).
  • Of the major subcategories of production, consumer goods saw the largest sequential monthly fall at -1.7% M/M (vs +1.3% prior), led by durable goods. Capital goods fell -1.5% M/M (vs 2.2% prior). Energy was the largest upside contributor, rising +3.1% M/M (vs +0.4% prior).
  • The December fall in IP comes despite various survey measures pointing to a recovery in the Spanish industrial outlook. Both the manufacturing PMI and January EC Industrial Confidence metric rose in January, though both still remain in contractionary territory.

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Spanish industrial production ended the year on a weak note, printing at -0.3% M/M SWDA in December (vs a 6-analyst consensus of -0.1% and a 0.1pp upwardly revised +1.1% prior) and -0.2% Y/Y SWDA (vs a 0.1pp upwardly revised +0.9% prior).

  • The unadjusted annual series saw a larger -4.0% Y/Y decline (vs a 0.1pp downwardly revised 1.0% prior).
  • Of the major subcategories of production, consumer goods saw the largest sequential monthly fall at -1.7% M/M (vs +1.3% prior), led by durable goods. Capital goods fell -1.5% M/M (vs 2.2% prior). Energy was the largest upside contributor, rising +3.1% M/M (vs +0.4% prior).
  • The December fall in IP comes despite various survey measures pointing to a recovery in the Spanish industrial outlook. Both the manufacturing PMI and January EC Industrial Confidence metric rose in January, though both still remain in contractionary territory.