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In the latest series of hypothetical first round presidential election opinion polls from Harris Interactive, far-right broadcaster and writer Eric Zemmour retains second place, with a narrow lead over right-wing National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen ahead if the April 2022 presidential election.

  • Scenario: Barnier as LR candidate: Macron (LREM): 27%, Zemmour (Ind.): 18%, Le Pen (RN): 16%, Mélenchon (LFI): 11%, Jadot (EELV): 8% (+1), Barnier (LR): 7%.
  • Scenario: Bertrand as LR candidate: Macron (LREM): 24%, Zemmour (Ind.): 17%, Le Pen (RN): 15%, Bertrand (LR): 14% (+1), Melenchon (LFI): 11%.
  • Scenario: Pécresse as LR candidate: Macron (LREM): 25%, Zemmour (Ind.): 17%, Le Pen (RN): 15%, Mélenchon (LFI): 11%, Pécresse (LR): 11%
    • All Polls +/- vs. 1-4 Oct, Fieldwork: 8-11 October 2021, Sample size: 1,051
  • These polls will make good reading for Macron and his centrist Republique En Marche party. In hypothetical second-round polling carried out so far, the only candidate that comes close to beating Macron is President of the Regional Council of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand. Bertrand is an independent centre-right politician seeking the nomination of the Gaullist centre-right Les Republicains (LR).
  • Should the current polling hold and Zemmour make it through to the second round, polls have shown Macron winning fairly comfortably (55% to 45% and 63% to 37% respectively). However, Zemmour could prove more of a challenge to Macron than his 2017 opponent Marine Le Pen. While Zemmour's policy stance is arguably more right wing than Le Pen's, he does not carry the political baggage Le Pen does with her history as leader of the divisive National Front (now National Rally). This sees him poll better among middle-class and educated French voters, a demographic Macron is heavily reliant upon for support.