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Fed 2024 Rate Cuts On Track To Close At Fresh Extreme For The Cycle

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pulled a little off session lows but continue to hold a significant post-PPI slide despite relatively modest changes in core PCE estimates on the data.
  • March cut pricing has built back up to a cumulative 21.5bps (vs 18bp before yesterday’s CPI), whilst there is a cumulative 81bp for June, 150bp for Nov and 166bp for Dec.
  • The Dec’24 implied rate has slid 31bp since last week’s payrolls, and at current levels would mark its most inverted close of the cycle.

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