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Fed 2H23 Rate Path Back Near Post-JOLTS Lows

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds imply a 21.5bp hike for today’s FOMC decision, unchanged from yesterday’s close after recovering off 20bps post-JOLTS having been 24bps prior.
  • Larger declines further out, with the hike fully unwound in Sep before 24bp of cuts from current to 4.59% Nov (-3bp) and 45bp cuts from current to 4.38% Dec (-3bp).
  • Former Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan recommends a hawkish pause today, citing bank equities being marked down solely because of overinvestment in USTs with the “normally more serious” credit phase yet to unfold. He told MNI Apr 27 he sees the Fed maintaining hawkish guidance as structural factors will make it very challenging to get inflation below 4%.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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