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Fed Cut Expectations Back At High End Of Recent Range After Soft Data

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have fallen by as much as 8bps for late 2024 meetings since levels shortly before ADP missed, which of course has been followed by the more notable ISM mfg miss and with little offsetting impact from a JOLTS report mostly unchanged from that of August. Landing in the middle of that has also been dovish implications from the Treasury Refunding Announcement.
  • It sees the implied terminal cut 1.5bps to 5.41% in January for a cumulative 8bp of tightening from the current effective 5.33%.
  • It’s then followed by now 84bp of cuts to year-end vs 77bp prior to the data, and for a longer-term comparison from 65bp prior to Powell’s Economic Club of NY addresses – see table. It’s back at the high end of the 65-85bp range seen since US CPI.

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