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Fed Cut Expectations Build With Further Data Misses

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates fall further as softer than expected ADP and GDP/core PCE details build on yesterday’s JOLTS/Conf Board misses. Compared to pre-JOLTS levels, the Nov terminal is now more than 6bps lower whilst 2H24 implied rates are currently at least 20bps below.
  • Cumulative hikes are reduced to 2.5bp for Sept (-0.5bp since the data) and 11bp for Nov to a terminal 5.44% (-1bp since data having already slipped ahead of time).
  • Cuts from the Nov terminal build, reversing the trimming overnight and now larger than yesterday’s close with 2bp to Dec’23 (from 1.5bp), 49bp to Jun’24 (from 46bp) and 121bp to Dec’24 (from 118bp).

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