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Fed Cuts Build On ADP and ECI Misses

STIR
  • The moderation in ECI and earlier miss for ADP employment sees Fed Funds futures show cumulative cuts rise to 13.5bp for March (+1bp), 59bp for Jun (+2bp), 80bp for July (+3bp) and 138bp for Dec (+3.5bp).
  • It sees March cut pricing back at the top of the 10-13.5bp range seen since early last week, but still compares with the 19bps pre-Waller.
  • Some still see greater likelihood of a March cut however, including former New York Fed and IMF economist Dominique Dwor-Frecaut in a discussion with MNI - as seen on MNI Policy MainWire.

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