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Fed Cuts Trimmed Further After Debt Talk Progress

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are off overnight highs but have continued to unwind cuts later in the year after weekend debt deal is set to head to Congress.
  • Less than 50bp of cuts from July peak to January.
  • Cumulative from 5.08% effective: +15.5bp Jun (-0.5bp from Fri), +24bp Jul (-1bp), +19bp Sep (+0.5bp), +8.5bp Nov (+2.5bp), -5bp Dec (+3bp) and -20bp Jan (+3.5bp).
  • Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’23 voter) in an interview with CBS on Sunday echoed other Fed speakers that he doesn’t want to prejudge June’s rate move [notable releases between now and then include payrolls on Jun 2 and CPI on Jun 13].
  • He did however keep to dovish leaning remarks that Fed moves takes months, years to work through the economy.
  • Other comments meanwhile took aim at debt talk discussions despite weekend progress: seeing fear and uncertainty in rates over an impasse and with a last minute deal “a little dangerous”.


Source: Bloomberg

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