FED: Dudley Writes Indications on Size of First Fed Cut Unlikely at Jackson Hole

Former FOMC member Bill Dudley writes a new column on the Fed ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting - his previous column "I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now" drew a decent amount of market interest ahead of the July Fed decision.

He writes that:

• "People will be listening intently for any hint about what the central bank will do with interest rates at its September policy making meeting. They’ll probably be disappointed.
• "He’ll likely observe that [price stability and employment] are in closer balance, implying that tight monetary policy is no longer warranted. I would be surprised, though, if he offered any indication of the size of the first interest-rate cut, which is almost certain to come in September."

Dudley's opinions are helping form a consensus view for Jackson Hole next week, but the Fed Chair is unlikely to be drawn on specifics or details for the September decision - at which markets price ~30bps of rate cuts.